Friday, 21 November 2008
Online Poker - Know the percentages.

One of the biggest differences between a poker pro and a poker amateur is that the pros don’t tend to throw their money away, chasing after big hands that the odds tell them they have little or no chance of hitting.

To be a winning poker player you not only have to win hands, but you also have to exercise the knowledge and the skill to lay down hands when the odds aren’t in your favor. Think about that the next time you go chasing after a flush or a straight with half your chip-stack, only to miss your card on the turn or the river and end up much poorer.

Poker is a game of decisions. Whether or not you make the right one will determine the size of your stack every time you sit down at the table. So, how do you go about making the right decisions?

Well, besides reading your opponent and going with your gut instincts, playing the percentages is a good way to keep more money coming in than going out. Many people don’t like playing the percentage game because of the math involved. That shouldn’t scare you in the online poker world; since no one can see you that allows you to use a calculator, scrap paper, or even count on your fingers and toes if that’s what makes you comfortable.

Even with the privacy factor that online poker permits, any poker player should have a basic grasp on useful percentages to determine game-play decisions. Here are five common poker percentages that you should know to make faster and better decisions at the tables.

Five percentages you should know to play winning poker:

1. Flopping three of a kind with a pocket pair – 8.3/1

A pocket pair can be a powerful hand because it can often win without help from the board. But with a low pocket pair like threes or fours, which can easily be beaten by a higher pair on the flop or turn, you may want to reconsider seeing the flop if the betting around the table doesn’t meet the standards of your hand. Don’t get sucked into thinking that just because you have pocket 10s or jacks, you’re going to dominate a hand. Sure, another 10 or jack could fall on the flop, but if a king or ace falls your chances of winning probably just got a whole lot smaller.

2. Hitting a set by the river with a pocket pair – 4.2/1

You’ve got two more cards to make your three of a kind by the river. If a card higher than your pocket pair shows up on the flop or the turn, you may end up needing to make a set on the river to win the hand. Again, don’t overvalue pocket pairs because all too often this will burn you. Your chances of making a set by the river are only 4.2/1, so remember that when an ace turns up on the flop next time you’re holding pocket jacks.

3. Hitting a flush on the river with pocket suited cards - 4.1/1

Too many beginner poker players overvalue suited cards. Having a flush draw going into the river should not mean an automatic bet or call. Since your chances of hitting that flush are 4.1/1, you should consider two things before calling or making a bet. 1) How much will it cost you to see the next card? This is where pot odds come into play. If the potential win/loss isn’t worth it, get out of the hand. 2) What is your highest card? If you’re going for a flush draw and your highest card is a six, you may want to reconsider going after the river card. If another player is also on a flush draw with a higher card, then it will probably cost you a good portion of your chip stack.

4. Hitting an open-ended straight draw on the river – 4.8/1

Most of those beginner poker players who are overvaluing suited cards are doing the same thing with connectors. When it comes to going after an open-ended straight draw, the same things apply as with a flush draw. For advice on what to do with open-ended straight draws, reread the last helpful paragraph and insert the words “open-ended straight draw” where it says flush. That was pretty easy.

5. Hitting a gut-shot straight draw on the river – 11/1

People who chase after gut-shot straight draws simply blow my mind. Another thing that blows my mind are the players who don’t bet and allow these chasers a free card. If the only possible winning hand you can make going into the river is a straight off of a gut-shot straight draw, fold. I love (and also hate) playing against chasers who go after these hands. I love them when I can run them off a hand with a big bet, possibly stealing the blinds with nothing. And I hate them when someone allows them to stick around to the end and they luck out a straight on the river.

The number one rule with all five of these percentages is: Don’t be a chaser. Play smart poker. Look at your opponents, look at your odds and look at your chip stack when making decisions. Unless of course you like losing.

 
< Prev   Next >